Planning your budget for 2026: why you should avoid taking out a loan in the last months of 2025 without a clear calculation.

What does it mean to plan your budget for 2026?

Planning your budget for 2026 involves more than simply listing income and expenses; it's a strategic analysis that considers economic fluctuations, personal goals, and reserves for unforeseen events.

For example, by mapping out projected monthly expenses, you can identify consumption patterns that can be optimized.

Furthermore, this approach allows you to align your budget with long-term goals, such as travel or educational investments.

However, effective planning requires digital tools or customized spreadsheets to track seasonal variations, especially in Brazil, where inflation and interest rates directly influence purchasing power.

Therefore, integrating realistic projections of variable income, such as bonuses or freelance work, ensures a holistic view.

Consequently, the accumulation of unnecessary debt is avoided by prioritizing monthly savings.

On the other hand, ignoring elements such as rising fixed costs, like rent or education, can distort the entire plan.

Therefore, periodically review your budget to adapt to changes, such as salary increases or medical expenses.

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In this way, the process becomes dynamic, promoting not only stability but also asset growth throughout the year.

Why avoid taking out loans in the last months of 2025?

Avoiding loans in the last months of 2025 without clear planning is crucial because the transition period between years often brings extra expenses, such as end-of-year celebrations and initial taxes.

Furthermore, interest rates may be high due to monetary policies, making borrowing more expensive.

Therefore, opting for hasty solutions compromises cash flow for 2026.

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However, an impulsive decision can mask underlying problems in the current budget, such as excessive spending on leisure.

For example, instead of borrowing, reassessing priorities allows for the reallocation of existing funds.

Consequently, this strengthens financial resilience, preventing debt from accumulating like a snowball.

Furthermore, the end of the year coincides with tax reviews, where unplanned loans can affect income tax returns.

Therefore, prioritize alternatives such as emergency savings or negotiations with creditors.

This way, you enter 2026 with greater control, focusing on productive investments instead of interest payments.

How to calculate correctly before deciding on a loan?

Calculating correctly before taking out a loan starts with an accurate assessment of your ability to repay, considering net income and mandatory expenses.

For example, use simple formulas like the debt-to-income ratio, which divides total debt by monthly income.

Additionally, simulate scenarios using free online tools to predict the impacts of compound interest.

However, include variables such as projected inflation for 2026, which can increase everyday costs. Therefore, adjust the calculation to include buffers of 10-20% for unforeseen events.

Consequently, this reveals whether the loan is viable or whether alternatives, such as cost-cutting, are more sensible.

On the other hand, consult bank records to map real consumption patterns, avoiding optimistic estimates.

Therefore, test the plan in spreadsheets with automatic formulas.

In this way, the process becomes a tool for empowerment, transforming financial decisions into calculated and safe steps.

Here is a table with the essential steps for the calculation:

Step	Description	Practical Tip
1. Assess Income	Add up all sources of monthly income.	Include variable income averaged over a 6-month period.
2. List Expenses	Categorize fixed and variable values.	Use apps like GuiaBolso for automatic tracking.
3. Calculate the Debt Ratio	Divide debts by income (ideally below 30%).	Simulate interest rate increases for pessimistic scenarios.
4. Project Interest	Use online calculators to estimate total costs.	Consider current SELIC rates for accuracy.

What are the risks of ignoring precise calculations?

Ignoring accurate calculations when taking out loans can lead to prolonged debt cycles, where accrued interest exceeds the principal amount.

Furthermore, this affects credit scores, limiting access to future financing with favorable terms.

Thus, the risk extends to emotional stress, impacting productivity at work.

However, without analysis, you may underestimate the impact on emergency reserves, leaving you vulnerable to crises such as job loss.

For example, a loan for holiday shopping might drain funds needed for January.

Consequently, this perpetuates credit dependency instead of fostering financial independence.

On the other hand, risks include penalties for delays, which can increase total costs by up to 50%. Therefore, prioritize financial education to mitigate these dangers.

In this way, informed decisions protect not only the 2026 budget, but also the overall well-being of the family.

What real-world examples illustrate these dangers?

One example involves Ana, a 35-year-old teacher who, in November 2025, took out a loan of R$ 5,000 to renovate her house before the holidays, without calculating the impact.

Furthermore, she was unaware that her salary would have extra deductions in January for taxes.

Thus, the installments consumed 40% of their income, forcing cuts in their children's education.

However, Ana could have postponed retirement by using accumulated savings.

For example, by recalculating, she would see that the interest of 2% per month would transform the loan into R$ 6,500 in one year.

Consequently, this led her to renegotiate debts, delaying plans for 2026.

Another example is João, a freelance entrepreneur who, in December 2025, financed new equipment without projecting cash flow.

Therefore, when customers were late with payments, he faced default.

Therefore, the loan without a clear calculation became a barrier to expanding the business the following year.

Why do recent statistics on debt in Brazil reinforce this caution?

Recent statistics highlight the alarming growth of debt in Brazil, reinforcing the need for accurate calculations.

For example, according to data from Serasa, in August 2025, the number of Brazilians in default reached 78.8 million, an increase of 9.81% compared to the previous year.

Furthermore, this represents almost half of the adult population, signaling a worrying trend.

However, this statistic illustrates how impulsive decisions at the end of the year contribute to spikes in default rates.

Thus, families with debts consuming up to 28% of their income, according to the Central Bank, face difficulties in planning future budgets.

Consequently, avoiding loans without due diligence mitigates these systemic risks.

On the other hand, projections indicate that indebtedness will continue to rise in 2026 if current patterns persist.

Therefore, use this data as a warning to prioritize planning.

In this way, individuals can reverse their personal growth curve, contributing to a more stable economy.

Here is a comparative table of debt statistics:

Year	Number of Delinquent Accountants (millions)	Percentage of Indebted Families	Source
2024	71,7	76,7%	Serasa / CNC
2025 (until August)	78,8	77,6%	Serasa / Central Bank
Projection 2026	Above 80	Up to 80%	CNC Estimates

How can an analogy help visualize the problem?

Taking out a loan in the last months of 2025 without clear calculations is like sailing a boat without checking the weather: you might set off excitedly, but an unexpected storm could sink everything.

Furthermore, just as the captain ignores maps and forecasts, the borrower disregards financial projections, risking shipwreck in 2026.

However, with calculations, it's like equipping the boat with radar and fuel reserves.

For example, you anticipate high waves (extra expenses) and adjust your route. Consequently, you arrive at your destination safely, instead of facing costly rescues.

On the other hand, this analogy highlights the importance of preparation: without it, what seems like a quick solution turns into an exhausting journey.

Therefore, apply this to engage in reflection: What if you could avoid financial shipwreck simply by checking the budgetary "climate"?

Planning your budget for 2026: Frequently Asked Questions

Many people have questions about practical aspects when planning their finances. Furthermore, clarifying common doubts helps in making informed decisions.

Therefore, see below a table with relevant answers.

Question	Response
When is the best time to plan your 2026 budget?	Start in October 2025 to capture year-end trends and adjust with real data. However, review monthly for flexibility.
Are loans always a bad thing?	No, but without calculation, yes. For example, use them for investments with a return higher than interest, such as education. Consequently, evaluate ROI beforehand.
How to deal with existing debt when planning?	Prioritize paying off high interest rates. Additionally, consolidate them into a lower-interest loan. This way, you'll free up cash flow for 2026.
What free tools can help with the calculation?	Apps like Mobills or Excel templates. Therefore, integrate with online banking for automation. This way, you gain accuracy at no cost.
What should I do if I've already taken out an impulsive loan?	Renegotiate terms immediately. However, cut non-essential expenses to speed up repayment. Consequently, minimize long-term damage.

In conclusion, planning the budget for 2026 requires strategic vision to avoid pitfalls such as impulsive borrowing in 2025.

Therefore, adopt rigorous calculations and learn from examples, statistics, and analogies for a solid financial future.

In addition, consult professionals if necessary.

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By: Andre Neri updated ago 3 months back